FOOD INDUSTRY ONLINE GROCERY SALES to Grow Three Times Faster than in Stores By Abasto ver the next five years, eGrocery sales are projected to increase at a CAGR of 4.5%, more than three times faster than the 1.3% rate anticipated for the in-store segment. Meanwhile, overall grocery sales in the U.S. are Oforecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6% through 2028, considerably slower than the 5.6% posted over the 昀椀ve years ending in 2023, which were powered by the pandemic and price in昀氀ation. 吀栀e new report, U.S. eGrocery Sales Forecast: 2024-28, developed by Brick Meets Click and sponsored by Mercatus, o昀昀ers a clear forecast of online grocery sales behavior over the next 昀椀ve years and identi昀椀es that Pickup will remain the dominant method and order frequency will be a key driver of growth. What Impacts Market Behavior Total eGrocery sales, which includes Delivery, Pickup, and Ship-to-Home, are projected to reach almost $120 billion annually by the end of 2028 and account for 12.7% of total grocery sales in the U.S., up 170 basis points (bps) versus 2023, the starting point for the 昀椀ve-year forecast. The Dominant Method of Excluding Ship-to-Home, given that most grocers do not Online Grocery Sales o昀昀er the service, Delivery, and Pickup sales combined will What to expect regarding methods for customers to get represent 10.7% of total grocery sales in 昀椀ve years. grocery orders online: “Two factors are creating signi昀椀cant headwinds that impact • Pickup sales are expected to grow faster (5.4%) through 2028. • Delivery is expected to grow (4.4%) and Ship-to-Home (2.8%) through 2028. • Pickup is expected to remain the dominant method, accounting for nearly 47% of all online grocery sales at the end of 昀椀ve years. “Expanding personalization e昀昀orts to include targeted o昀昀ers or tailored recommendations will play a vital role in increasing repeat purchase behavior and eGrocery sales,” said Mark Fairhurst, Global Chief Growth O昀케cer at Mercatus. our eGrocery forecast. First, the market is maturing. Nearly all of the people interested in online grocery shopping have used it at least once by now,” stated David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “Second, even though in昀氀ation has recently fallen faster than expected, its cumulative e昀昀ect continues to drive a 昀氀ight-to- value behavior in grocery shopping, which will slow topline sales growth,” added Bishop. 6060 JJUULLYY//AAUUGGUUSST 2T 200224 4 AABBAASSTOTO..CCOOMM