20 • Julio | Agosto 2026 • abasto.com BY ABASTO S NAP food restrictions sweeping across 19 states could wipe out up to $830 million in soda, candy, and energy drink sales by year’s end, according to new Numerator research. The consumer data firm released its “SNAP in Transition” report, combining verified purchase data with a survey of over 1,000 SNAP households. Together, they paint a sharp picture of a program under significant structural pressure. Three Disruptions Hit SNAP at Once The program recently absorbed three si- multaneous shocks. First, a government benefit blackout hit in November 2025. Se- cond, states began rolling out Food Restric- tion Waivers. Third, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) tightened participant eligi- bility nationwide. The 43-day government shutdown — the longest in U.S. history — triggered imme- diate behavioral changes. Weekly grocery spending among SNAP households fell 10%, dropping from $233 to $210 between early and late October. Consumers cut deferrable categories first. SNAP Food Restrictions Put $830M in Grocery Sales at Risk Hardware purchases dropped 18%, fast food restaurant desserts fell 10%, and be- verages declined 6% during the four-week period ending Nov. 9, 2025. Retailers felt the traffic pain acutely. 7-Eleven lost 18% of SNAP shopper visits, Amazon dropped 17%, and Shell, Circle K, and Wawa each recorded double-digit declines. SNAP Food Restrictions Reshape Eligible Purchases Food Restriction Waivers now represent the program’s most structural long-term change. By the end of 2026, 19 states will carry active waivers, covering roughly one- third of all SNAP participants, approximate- ly 7.5 million households. The restrictions target soda, candy, and energy drinks. Critically, these categories already see higher engagement in waiver states. In active FRW states, soft drinks were present in 23% of SNAP trips, compared with 18% in non-waiver states. Candy showed similar patterns, 21% trip inclusion in FRW states versus 17% el- sewhere. Energy drinks registered at 10% versus 8%. These numbers signal the res- trictions arrive exactly where SNAP dollars flow most freely. Consumers Plan to Adapt, But Sales Will Still Suffer Shopper awareness is high. A notable 86% of SNAP households in FRW states say they already know restrictions are coming. Many plan to adjust their spending rather than go without. For soda, 63% of SNAP consumers say they would spend non-SNAP dollars to keep buying — either at the same level or trading down to cheaper alternatives. Candy drew 60% saying the same. Energy drinks trailed at 45%. Still, losses will accumulate. Numera- tor projects soda could absorb up to $430 million in sales declines. Candy faces up to $300 million in risk. Energy drinks round out the exposure at $100 million. What Retailers and Brands Should Do Now Numerator closes the report with a strategic framework: Discern, De-average, and Defend. Brands should carefully profile SNAP shoppers and distinguish between pullbacks stemming from lost benefits and those from restricted eligibi- lity. They should also resist uniform national strategies, since category and geographic pressures vary widely. Most important- ly, they must lean into value. SNAP shoppers are acti- vely seeking utility, durability, and cost efficiency, and retailers that deliver those signals clearly will hold their share in a tightening envi- ronment. • ECONOMY FOCUS