14 • March | April 2026 • abasto.com Growth will be driven primarily by prices rather than volume increases BY ABASTO S ales of fresh produce will maintain steady but limited growth through 2026, accor- ding to Circana’s latest forecast. Specifically, the firm projects an increase of close to 2% annually in dollar sales. However, volume is expected to remain virtually flat, reflecting price pressure and more cautious consumers. At the same time, inflation con- tinues to influence purchasing decisions within the department. Therefore, growth will depend more on prices than on increased consumption. A Consumer-Driven Approach Circana bases its projections on its Future of Produce report, which integrates macroeconomic in- dicators, point-of-sale data, and in-depth consumer analysis. Un- like traditional supply-focused models, this approach prioritizes demand and buyer behavior. In addition, the report includes three-year projections on sales, volu- me, and prices for fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, and more than 30 specific categories. It also incorporates consu- mer survey results through an inte- ractive digital platform. Together, these data seek to help producers, distributors, brands, and retailers identify concrete opportunities for growth. Innovation, Key to Growth Despite consumer interest in heal- thier eating, Circana identifies un- tapped potential in the category. “Despite favorable winds from U.S. consumer interest in natural, fresh, and healthy eating, the sales forecast is modest, and volume is surprisingly flat through 2026,” said Jonna Parker, vice president of Fresh Foods at Circana. According to Parker, the slow erosion of volume growth over the next three years is seen as unta- pped potential, pointing to what could happen if fresh fruits and vegetables continue on their cu- rrent trajectory of focusing sole- ly on providing abundant supply without deeply understanding to- day’s consumers. Looking ahead, Circana recom- mends strengthening the value message to attract price-sensitive consumers. It also highlights the importance of investing in meal solutions, pre-cut products, and ready-to-eat options. Without a clear investment in de- mand generation, the industry risks settling for modest results in a mar- ket with room for innovation. Although the overall picture shows stability, performan- ce will vary by segment. For example, fresh fruit is expected to outperform the department average, driven by demand for snack options and interest in tropical varieties. In contrast, fresh vegetables face a more challenging environment. Circana points to an ur- gent need for innovation in convenient formats, greater investment in marketing, and a clear value strategy to com- pete with packaged foods. Fruits Advance; Vegetables Face Challenges Circana Sees Moderate Growth in Fresh Produce As the category evolves, brands that innovate around convenience, health, and affordability will lead the next wave of growth.” Jonna Parker | VP of Fresh Foods, Circana. Special Insert Agriculture industry